Dinar Alert Kaperoni: Iraq Government News > Corruption in Iraq file reaches the most dangerous stages February 3, 2018 The general amne...
Dinar Alert
Kaperoni: Iraq Government News > Corruption in Iraq file reaches the most dangerous stages
February 3, 2018 The general amnesty issued by parliament earlier in an important outlet for corrupt law in Iraq, provides them with a cover legislative, at a time when many of the judges and partisan political pressure is exposed to stop detection operations corruption.
According to the newspaper (London-based Asharq Al-Awsat) that the "file corruption in Iraq was the most dangerous stages due to the inclusion of corrupt senior legislative cover is a general amnesty law passed by the House of Representatives in the previous period."
The paper quoted an Iraqi official as saying that "the general amnesty law has caused a serious problem in terms of the principle of anti-corruption in Iraq, in addition to the pressures faced by judges from political and partisan, some leaders of the window and a high-level in order to stop a lot of detecting major thefts or attempted to include larger operations a number of corrupt general amnesty in which he found corrupt and the law stands behind loopholes they can pass them. "
The official added that "there revealed corruption operations against persons amounted to between 400 and 500 million US dollars, however, are closing their files in one way or another, including bringing them a general amnesty."
For his part, said the Integrity Committee member of parliament, "Mishan al-Jubouri," that "what is being advertised either of issues related to the recovery of funds or corrupt referral is not actually represent something important in relation to the size of the corruption that continues to thrive."
Jubouri said that "the problem we face in Iraq is the lack of real will to fight corruption and so long as it is difficult to talk about making progress in this file."
http://yaqein.net/politics/86884
chattels: Monday, February 5, 2018 Federal Court Ends Extraditions Hurting Anti-Corruption Effort
February 4, 2018, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court ruled that extraditions were unconstitutional. It cited Article 21 of the constitution which states that Iraqis could not be extradited by foreign authorities. This ends efforts by Baghdad to get corrupt officials deported from other countries back to Iraq for their corrupt practices. Recently, former Trade Minister Abdul Falah al-Sudani was extradited by Lebanon.
He was found guilty in absentia after he fled Iraq. It also tried to do the same thing to ex-Defense Minister Ziad al-Qattan. Now that effort is over. High ranking Iraqi officials often escape graft charges by leaving Iraq. It appeared that route might finally be closed, but not anymore thanks to the Federal Court.
This might hinder Prime Minister Haidar Abadi’s anti-corruption campaign, but that appears to be only focused upon cleaning up the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). With elections coming in May that might be all the premier hoping it will help him in the polls since the KRG is widely unpopular in the rest of the country.
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2018/02/federal-court-ends-extraditions-hurting.html
chattels: So much for Abadi's full scale war on corruption. The court just removed an arrow from the quiver. Abadi is " focused upon cleaning up the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)." It reminds me of the passage of scripture that admonishes against removing the splinter from the eye of another and ignoring the log in their own eye. These actions are not lost upon the Kurds and maybe not the IMF either.
" In the meeting with Kurdish MPs, Abadi reiterated that the KRG’s payroll is not clean and has ghost employees in it and should be cleared of irregular salary receivers before the budget is sent."
“We asked Abadi whether the Hashd al-Shaabi and Iraqi ministries payrolls were clean. I said this to Abadi: after you became prime minister of Iraq, when you first came to the parliament, you said there were 50,000 ghost employees in the ministry of defense alone.
http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/06022018
Kaperoni: Iraq Government News > The House of Representatives completes reading the proposal of the second amendment law to the law of elections of the House of Representatives
February 5, 2018 The House of Representatives in its tenth ordinary session, which resumed under the chairmanship of Dr. Salim Jubouri, Speaker of the House of Representatives on Monday 5/2/2018 read one law proposal.
At the beginning of the meeting, the President of the Council announced the readiness of the Finance Committee to list the federal budget bill for 2018 on the agenda of the session of the Council in the event of a quorum for discussion.
Al-Jubouri noted that the Council of Ministers is concerned with setting a new date for the local elections and the House of Representatives role by sending a number of requests from the ladies and gentlemen to the Council of Ministers in this regard, announcing the readiness of the House of Representatives to draft a resolution on the local elections.
Mr. Jabouri stressed the continuation of the procedures of questioning the Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research in the Council, considering that the resort of the Minister to the Court does not prevent the continuation of the process of questioning.
The Council concluded reading the report and discussion of the proposed law of the second amendment to the law of elections of the Iraqi Council of Representatives No. 45 of 2013 and submitted by the Legal Committee.
In the interventions of Ladies and Gentlemen MPs on the proposed law, MP Suad Hameed called for not specifying a certain percentage regarding the holders of the preparatory certificate, taking into consideration the class of teachers, peasants and industrialists in running for elections.
She called on Sharaouq Abayji to close the legal outlets in order to allow those involved in corruption in the upcoming elections.
MP Khalid al-Asadi declined to increase the number of members of the House of Representatives with the grant of the components of shares of the total seats of the Council.
MP Ali Shweileh stressed the need to resolve the vote on the paragraph that the Commission objected to electronic voting and to overcome controversial proposals.
MP Ammar Tohme inquired about the mechanisms and criteria according to which the proposed increase in the number of seats of components and minorities was determined.
MP Salah al-Jubouri stressed the importance of the law in building the political process, calling for the lack of urgency to put forward proposals that will negatively affect the law, expressing support for the proposed proportion of the certificate holders middle school.
The deputy Vian Dakhil pointed to the decision of the Federal Court, which gave the right to the Yezidi component a number of seats in the House of Representatives commensurate with the souls of the sons of the component.
He pointed out that the quota is granted to those who can not cross the electoral threshold, and not to those who have more than one seat in the Council, noting the lack of expansion in the introduction of amendments to the proposed law.
MP Zeitoun al-Dulaimi stressed the importance of focusing on the first amendment and not to add further amendments to the proposed law.
MP Maysoun al-Damluji was surprised by the introduction of a double-entry ban on candidacy in the law, arguing that it challenged the credibility of those who left Iraq.
MP Adnan al-Asadi warned against delaying the proposed legislation of the second amendment to the law of the elections of the Council of Representatives and resolving it as soon as possible to ensure the holding of legislative elections.
The MP Mahmoud al-Hassan that many of the proposals made in the proposal of the law violate the Constitution and the rules of procedure.
MP Jabbar al-Abadi suggested that the percentage of the 20% of the holders of the preparatory certificate should be from the governorate percentage group and not from the total of the candidate list.
MP Abdul-Qahar al-Samarrai said that the number of seats in the House of Representatives is not commensurate with the population of Iraq, calling for justice to all provinces in the event of an increase in seats.
MP Talabani presented a proposal that the percentage of the 20% of the holders of preparatory certificates is not binding on the entities and political parties and the High Electoral Commission.
In its response to the interventions, the Committee confirmed its reconsideration of the proposals submitted by the ladies and gentlemen, especially those accused of financial, administrative and dual-nationality corruption.
The President of the Council adopted the wording of the first reading of the proposed law and the new proposals that will be decided by the Council.
"President al-Jubouri announced the submission of a parliamentary request on the date of provincial elections, noting that the presidency of the Council is ready to make a recommendation to the Council of Ministers regarding the general trend on postponing the date of local elections in the event of the desire of ladies and gentlemen deputies.
The meeting was then adjourned
Department of Information Iraqi Council of Representatives 5/2/2018
LINK
Phil Oberholzer: The House must have read the one law before they got into their fight over the budget.
Mike: Thanks Kap, this is a telling article. There are so many agenda's it boggles the mind, it seems most are happy to hold things up by keeping it in committee. The last thing I want to see is more seats added to the government, with the Sunni's displaced and the Kurd's infighting, this would only benefit the Shia, everyone else is disorganized. Hopefully they can get this deal sorted out quickly, free and open elections are kind of important when building a Iraqi democracy;
For better or worse, the quote system is still a big deal in Iraq "He pointed out that the quota is granted"
chattels: Iraq elections: A very divided political landscape
The announcement of Iraq's electoral coalitions are indicative of a fractured political landscape at a time when consensus is needed for post-conflict peace building
Iraq's parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 2018, will serve as the first national referendum since defeating the Islamic State (IS) in 2017. Sectarianism will remain a problem in this election, an endemic dynamic in Iraqi politics since 2003 when Saddam Hussein was overthrown.
Nonetheless, a greater problem, that rarely garners attention in international media and policy circles, will persist: intra-sectarianism.
Observers of the lead-up to the elections will invariably examine the Shia versus Sunni rivalries during the process, but I believe that the most salient dynamic is the division within Iraq's Shia and Sunni political elites respectively, in addition to intra-Kurdish tensions.
Divisive domestic politics
While sectarianism has contributed to violent conflict and acerbic political discourse in Iraq, the divisions within respective Shia and Sunni political elites have further exacerbated Iraq's divisive domestic politics, thus hindering the government's ability to tackle pressing issues such as corruption, reconstruction, and reconciliation necessary for peace building.
Since 2003, Iraq's elections have been based on a list system where votes are cast for electoral alliances rather than politicians directly
This problem, along with tensions between Arab and Kurdish parties in light of the failed Kurdish vote on independence, raises two pressing questions: first, how will the Kurdish parties fare in a national electoral process given their failed independence initiative?
Second, how will voters react to the contentious role of the Shia militias in the electoral process, who - as armed groups - are technically barred from running by the Iraqi constitution?
The answers to these questions will be determined at the ballot box and will decide whether these parties can come to a consensus to tackle Iraq's looming humanitarian and economic issues.
Beleaguered Arab Sunni coalitions
While the elections are a few months away, Arab Sunni parties have demanded a delay of the polls so as to allow Iraq's internally displaced peoples sufficient time to return to their homes and cast their votes.
The largest Arab Sunni bloc, the "United" (al-Mutahidoon), have insisted that fair elections can only be held once refugees return to their hometowns. Estimates indicate that at the end of 2017 2.6 million people were still displaced within the country; most of them happen to be Arab Sunni constituents.
The delay has been rebuffed by Iraq's Supreme Court as well as by Iraq's incumbent prime minister, Haidar Abadi, since Iraq's election had already been rescheduled from September 2017 due to the fighting with IS.
Holding the elections on time is one among many issues that Abadi will have to tackle in the lead-up to the polls, contested by a myriad of rival Shia parties.
The Shia coalitions
Since 2003, Iraq's elections have been based on a list system where votes are cast for electoral alliances rather than politicians directly. Parties tend to form coalitions prior to each election to maximise votes. In the first elections of 2005, almost all the Shia parties ran under a single electoral list, as did the Kurdish parties.
This pattern has collapsed since then. For example, Arab Sunni parties have failed to agree to run under a single list for 2018, further dividing the Arab Sunni vote.
In the lead up to the 2018 vote, Iraq's rival Shia coalitions included Abadi's, who will run for reelection as the head of the "Victory of Iraq" (Nasr al-Iraq) bloc, its name capitalising on the Iraqi victory over IS.
Second, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is seeking a political comeback since he stepped down in 2014, leading the "State of Law" (Dawlat al-Qanun) coalition.
Third, the Shia militias have fielded candidates in the "Conqueror" (al-Fatih) bloc. Even though the candidates resigned from their militia posts to run in the elections, they will maintain informal connections to their military units, some of which are connected to Iran.
The fractured Kurdish political landscape, like the Shi’a political landscape, demonstrates that Kurdish ethnicity is not in and of itself sufficient to unite Iraq's Kurds, just as the case of sectarian identity amongst Iraq’s Shi’a and Arabs
While these candidates were initially slated to run under Abadi's coalition, this alliance collapsed just a day after its formation. The reasons for the collapse remain opaque, most likely due to disagreements during the closed-door negotiations.
In theory the militia candidates could have realigned with al-Maliki, however, they chose to run independently.
These are just three groupings among a myriad of other established Shia political factions that emerged since 2003, an indication of the divisiveness within Iraq’s Shia political elite.
Rival Kurdish coalitions
The ballot box will also decide the fate of the two traditional Kurdish parties. Will the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) suffer for its leader Massoud Barzani's failed push for independence for Iraq's Kurds?
Will the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) suffer for failing to wholeheartedly endorse this effort and its tacit role in allowing the oil-rich city of Kirkuk to revert back to Iraqi government control?
In all reality these parties might suffer for both actions, but will most likely lose votes due to accusations of corruption and failure to create new jobs, issues that have led to a wave of protests in the KRG.
Other Kurdish political parties that will capitalise on this discontent, such as the opposition party "Change" (Gorran), will run with two other KRG opposition parties to form a coalition called "Homeland" (Nishtiman).
It will be interesting to see which party the voters in the contested city of Kirkuk will support. First, the KDP indicated that it will not field candidates in the city, due to its disputed status.
The Kurdish opposition may be able to take advantage of this boycott to augment its voter base there.
Regardless, the fractured Kurdish political landscape, like the Shia political landscape, demonstrates that Kurdish ethnicity is not in and of itself sufficient to unite Iraq's Kurds, as is the case for sectarian identity among Iraq's Shia and Arabs.
Some positive indicators
Despite this gloomy prognosis for Iraq's 2018 electoral cycle, there are some positive signs.
First, it seems possible in Iraq for sectarian parties to reinvent themselves as national movements. The Sadrists, followers of Shia religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr, were implicated in sectarian reprisal killings during the conflict from 2006 to 2008.
Iraq's Abadi announces end of short-lived electoral alliance with Iran-backed forces
In 2018 Al-Sadr announced a joint list with the Iraqi Communist Party, an anomalous example of Islamists uniting with an established secular party.
Second, the questions about the outcome of Iraq's elections is a reminder that the outcome of the vote is not necessarily pre-determined, a rarity in a region where elections are never held, or whose outcome will be 99.9 percent in favour of the leader-for-life.
Iraq is a flawed democracy, but in relative regional terms, offers some prospects for a new Iraqi government that can capitalise on the defeat of IS and deal with the underlying issues that led to its rise in the first place
- Ibrahim al-Marashi is Associate Professor of Middle East History at California State University San Marcos. His publications include: Iraq's Armed Forces: An Analytical History (2008), The Modern History of Iraq (2017), and A Concise History of the Middle East (forthcoming).
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/2018-iraqi-elections-and-its-divided-political-landscape-1398373136
Kaperoni: Iraq Government News > Corruption in Iraq file reaches the most dangerous stages
February 3, 2018 The general amnesty issued by parliament earlier in an important outlet for corrupt law in Iraq, provides them with a cover legislative, at a time when many of the judges and partisan political pressure is exposed to stop detection operations corruption.
According to the newspaper (London-based Asharq Al-Awsat) that the "file corruption in Iraq was the most dangerous stages due to the inclusion of corrupt senior legislative cover is a general amnesty law passed by the House of Representatives in the previous period."
The paper quoted an Iraqi official as saying that "the general amnesty law has caused a serious problem in terms of the principle of anti-corruption in Iraq, in addition to the pressures faced by judges from political and partisan, some leaders of the window and a high-level in order to stop a lot of detecting major thefts or attempted to include larger operations a number of corrupt general amnesty in which he found corrupt and the law stands behind loopholes they can pass them. "
The official added that "there revealed corruption operations against persons amounted to between 400 and 500 million US dollars, however, are closing their files in one way or another, including bringing them a general amnesty."
For his part, said the Integrity Committee member of parliament, "Mishan al-Jubouri," that "what is being advertised either of issues related to the recovery of funds or corrupt referral is not actually represent something important in relation to the size of the corruption that continues to thrive."
Jubouri said that "the problem we face in Iraq is the lack of real will to fight corruption and so long as it is difficult to talk about making progress in this file."
http://yaqein.net/politics/86884
chattels: Monday, February 5, 2018 Federal Court Ends Extraditions Hurting Anti-Corruption Effort
February 4, 2018, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court ruled that extraditions were unconstitutional. It cited Article 21 of the constitution which states that Iraqis could not be extradited by foreign authorities. This ends efforts by Baghdad to get corrupt officials deported from other countries back to Iraq for their corrupt practices. Recently, former Trade Minister Abdul Falah al-Sudani was extradited by Lebanon.
He was found guilty in absentia after he fled Iraq. It also tried to do the same thing to ex-Defense Minister Ziad al-Qattan. Now that effort is over. High ranking Iraqi officials often escape graft charges by leaving Iraq. It appeared that route might finally be closed, but not anymore thanks to the Federal Court.
This might hinder Prime Minister Haidar Abadi’s anti-corruption campaign, but that appears to be only focused upon cleaning up the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). With elections coming in May that might be all the premier hoping it will help him in the polls since the KRG is widely unpopular in the rest of the country.
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2018/02/federal-court-ends-extraditions-hurting.html
chattels: So much for Abadi's full scale war on corruption. The court just removed an arrow from the quiver. Abadi is " focused upon cleaning up the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)." It reminds me of the passage of scripture that admonishes against removing the splinter from the eye of another and ignoring the log in their own eye. These actions are not lost upon the Kurds and maybe not the IMF either.
" In the meeting with Kurdish MPs, Abadi reiterated that the KRG’s payroll is not clean and has ghost employees in it and should be cleared of irregular salary receivers before the budget is sent."
“We asked Abadi whether the Hashd al-Shaabi and Iraqi ministries payrolls were clean. I said this to Abadi: after you became prime minister of Iraq, when you first came to the parliament, you said there were 50,000 ghost employees in the ministry of defense alone.
http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/06022018
Kaperoni: Iraq Government News > The House of Representatives completes reading the proposal of the second amendment law to the law of elections of the House of Representatives
February 5, 2018 The House of Representatives in its tenth ordinary session, which resumed under the chairmanship of Dr. Salim Jubouri, Speaker of the House of Representatives on Monday 5/2/2018 read one law proposal.
At the beginning of the meeting, the President of the Council announced the readiness of the Finance Committee to list the federal budget bill for 2018 on the agenda of the session of the Council in the event of a quorum for discussion.
Al-Jubouri noted that the Council of Ministers is concerned with setting a new date for the local elections and the House of Representatives role by sending a number of requests from the ladies and gentlemen to the Council of Ministers in this regard, announcing the readiness of the House of Representatives to draft a resolution on the local elections.
Mr. Jabouri stressed the continuation of the procedures of questioning the Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research in the Council, considering that the resort of the Minister to the Court does not prevent the continuation of the process of questioning.
The Council concluded reading the report and discussion of the proposed law of the second amendment to the law of elections of the Iraqi Council of Representatives No. 45 of 2013 and submitted by the Legal Committee.
In the interventions of Ladies and Gentlemen MPs on the proposed law, MP Suad Hameed called for not specifying a certain percentage regarding the holders of the preparatory certificate, taking into consideration the class of teachers, peasants and industrialists in running for elections.
She called on Sharaouq Abayji to close the legal outlets in order to allow those involved in corruption in the upcoming elections.
MP Khalid al-Asadi declined to increase the number of members of the House of Representatives with the grant of the components of shares of the total seats of the Council.
MP Ali Shweileh stressed the need to resolve the vote on the paragraph that the Commission objected to electronic voting and to overcome controversial proposals.
MP Ammar Tohme inquired about the mechanisms and criteria according to which the proposed increase in the number of seats of components and minorities was determined.
MP Salah al-Jubouri stressed the importance of the law in building the political process, calling for the lack of urgency to put forward proposals that will negatively affect the law, expressing support for the proposed proportion of the certificate holders middle school.
The deputy Vian Dakhil pointed to the decision of the Federal Court, which gave the right to the Yezidi component a number of seats in the House of Representatives commensurate with the souls of the sons of the component.
He pointed out that the quota is granted to those who can not cross the electoral threshold, and not to those who have more than one seat in the Council, noting the lack of expansion in the introduction of amendments to the proposed law.
MP Zeitoun al-Dulaimi stressed the importance of focusing on the first amendment and not to add further amendments to the proposed law.
MP Maysoun al-Damluji was surprised by the introduction of a double-entry ban on candidacy in the law, arguing that it challenged the credibility of those who left Iraq.
MP Adnan al-Asadi warned against delaying the proposed legislation of the second amendment to the law of the elections of the Council of Representatives and resolving it as soon as possible to ensure the holding of legislative elections.
The MP Mahmoud al-Hassan that many of the proposals made in the proposal of the law violate the Constitution and the rules of procedure.
MP Jabbar al-Abadi suggested that the percentage of the 20% of the holders of the preparatory certificate should be from the governorate percentage group and not from the total of the candidate list.
MP Abdul-Qahar al-Samarrai said that the number of seats in the House of Representatives is not commensurate with the population of Iraq, calling for justice to all provinces in the event of an increase in seats.
MP Talabani presented a proposal that the percentage of the 20% of the holders of preparatory certificates is not binding on the entities and political parties and the High Electoral Commission.
In its response to the interventions, the Committee confirmed its reconsideration of the proposals submitted by the ladies and gentlemen, especially those accused of financial, administrative and dual-nationality corruption.
The President of the Council adopted the wording of the first reading of the proposed law and the new proposals that will be decided by the Council.
"President al-Jubouri announced the submission of a parliamentary request on the date of provincial elections, noting that the presidency of the Council is ready to make a recommendation to the Council of Ministers regarding the general trend on postponing the date of local elections in the event of the desire of ladies and gentlemen deputies.
The meeting was then adjourned
Department of Information Iraqi Council of Representatives 5/2/2018
LINK
Phil Oberholzer: The House must have read the one law before they got into their fight over the budget.
Mike: Thanks Kap, this is a telling article. There are so many agenda's it boggles the mind, it seems most are happy to hold things up by keeping it in committee. The last thing I want to see is more seats added to the government, with the Sunni's displaced and the Kurd's infighting, this would only benefit the Shia, everyone else is disorganized. Hopefully they can get this deal sorted out quickly, free and open elections are kind of important when building a Iraqi democracy;
For better or worse, the quote system is still a big deal in Iraq "He pointed out that the quota is granted"
chattels: Iraq elections: A very divided political landscape
The announcement of Iraq's electoral coalitions are indicative of a fractured political landscape at a time when consensus is needed for post-conflict peace building
Iraq's parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 2018, will serve as the first national referendum since defeating the Islamic State (IS) in 2017. Sectarianism will remain a problem in this election, an endemic dynamic in Iraqi politics since 2003 when Saddam Hussein was overthrown.
Nonetheless, a greater problem, that rarely garners attention in international media and policy circles, will persist: intra-sectarianism.
Observers of the lead-up to the elections will invariably examine the Shia versus Sunni rivalries during the process, but I believe that the most salient dynamic is the division within Iraq's Shia and Sunni political elites respectively, in addition to intra-Kurdish tensions.
Divisive domestic politics
While sectarianism has contributed to violent conflict and acerbic political discourse in Iraq, the divisions within respective Shia and Sunni political elites have further exacerbated Iraq's divisive domestic politics, thus hindering the government's ability to tackle pressing issues such as corruption, reconstruction, and reconciliation necessary for peace building.
Since 2003, Iraq's elections have been based on a list system where votes are cast for electoral alliances rather than politicians directly
This problem, along with tensions between Arab and Kurdish parties in light of the failed Kurdish vote on independence, raises two pressing questions: first, how will the Kurdish parties fare in a national electoral process given their failed independence initiative?
Second, how will voters react to the contentious role of the Shia militias in the electoral process, who - as armed groups - are technically barred from running by the Iraqi constitution?
The answers to these questions will be determined at the ballot box and will decide whether these parties can come to a consensus to tackle Iraq's looming humanitarian and economic issues.
Beleaguered Arab Sunni coalitions
While the elections are a few months away, Arab Sunni parties have demanded a delay of the polls so as to allow Iraq's internally displaced peoples sufficient time to return to their homes and cast their votes.
The largest Arab Sunni bloc, the "United" (al-Mutahidoon), have insisted that fair elections can only be held once refugees return to their hometowns. Estimates indicate that at the end of 2017 2.6 million people were still displaced within the country; most of them happen to be Arab Sunni constituents.
The delay has been rebuffed by Iraq's Supreme Court as well as by Iraq's incumbent prime minister, Haidar Abadi, since Iraq's election had already been rescheduled from September 2017 due to the fighting with IS.
Holding the elections on time is one among many issues that Abadi will have to tackle in the lead-up to the polls, contested by a myriad of rival Shia parties.
The Shia coalitions
Since 2003, Iraq's elections have been based on a list system where votes are cast for electoral alliances rather than politicians directly. Parties tend to form coalitions prior to each election to maximise votes. In the first elections of 2005, almost all the Shia parties ran under a single electoral list, as did the Kurdish parties.
This pattern has collapsed since then. For example, Arab Sunni parties have failed to agree to run under a single list for 2018, further dividing the Arab Sunni vote.
In the lead up to the 2018 vote, Iraq's rival Shia coalitions included Abadi's, who will run for reelection as the head of the "Victory of Iraq" (Nasr al-Iraq) bloc, its name capitalising on the Iraqi victory over IS.
Second, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is seeking a political comeback since he stepped down in 2014, leading the "State of Law" (Dawlat al-Qanun) coalition.
Third, the Shia militias have fielded candidates in the "Conqueror" (al-Fatih) bloc. Even though the candidates resigned from their militia posts to run in the elections, they will maintain informal connections to their military units, some of which are connected to Iran.
The fractured Kurdish political landscape, like the Shi’a political landscape, demonstrates that Kurdish ethnicity is not in and of itself sufficient to unite Iraq's Kurds, just as the case of sectarian identity amongst Iraq’s Shi’a and Arabs
While these candidates were initially slated to run under Abadi's coalition, this alliance collapsed just a day after its formation. The reasons for the collapse remain opaque, most likely due to disagreements during the closed-door negotiations.
In theory the militia candidates could have realigned with al-Maliki, however, they chose to run independently.
These are just three groupings among a myriad of other established Shia political factions that emerged since 2003, an indication of the divisiveness within Iraq’s Shia political elite.
Rival Kurdish coalitions
The ballot box will also decide the fate of the two traditional Kurdish parties. Will the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) suffer for its leader Massoud Barzani's failed push for independence for Iraq's Kurds?
Will the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) suffer for failing to wholeheartedly endorse this effort and its tacit role in allowing the oil-rich city of Kirkuk to revert back to Iraqi government control?
In all reality these parties might suffer for both actions, but will most likely lose votes due to accusations of corruption and failure to create new jobs, issues that have led to a wave of protests in the KRG.
Other Kurdish political parties that will capitalise on this discontent, such as the opposition party "Change" (Gorran), will run with two other KRG opposition parties to form a coalition called "Homeland" (Nishtiman).
It will be interesting to see which party the voters in the contested city of Kirkuk will support. First, the KDP indicated that it will not field candidates in the city, due to its disputed status.
The Kurdish opposition may be able to take advantage of this boycott to augment its voter base there.
Regardless, the fractured Kurdish political landscape, like the Shia political landscape, demonstrates that Kurdish ethnicity is not in and of itself sufficient to unite Iraq's Kurds, as is the case for sectarian identity among Iraq's Shia and Arabs.
Some positive indicators
Despite this gloomy prognosis for Iraq's 2018 electoral cycle, there are some positive signs.
First, it seems possible in Iraq for sectarian parties to reinvent themselves as national movements. The Sadrists, followers of Shia religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr, were implicated in sectarian reprisal killings during the conflict from 2006 to 2008.
Iraq's Abadi announces end of short-lived electoral alliance with Iran-backed forces
In 2018 Al-Sadr announced a joint list with the Iraqi Communist Party, an anomalous example of Islamists uniting with an established secular party.
Second, the questions about the outcome of Iraq's elections is a reminder that the outcome of the vote is not necessarily pre-determined, a rarity in a region where elections are never held, or whose outcome will be 99.9 percent in favour of the leader-for-life.
Iraq is a flawed democracy, but in relative regional terms, offers some prospects for a new Iraqi government that can capitalise on the defeat of IS and deal with the underlying issues that led to its rise in the first place
- Ibrahim al-Marashi is Associate Professor of Middle East History at California State University San Marcos. His publications include: Iraq's Armed Forces: An Analytical History (2008), The Modern History of Iraq (2017), and A Concise History of the Middle East (forthcoming).
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/2018-iraqi-elections-and-its-divided-political-landscape-1398373136
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